After posting my excitement about new techo-toys, I read Deb Schinder's article in WinXPNews. I read it each week, because she's tied heavily into the hardware and software worlds as a tester, tech-writer, etc. I hereby give Deb credit for much of this discussion. I regurgitated paraphrased bits of her article as they mirror my own thoughts and concerns.
We've been hearing predictions about the "death of the PC" for a couple of years now, and I want to be very clear in saying that we are not ready for that.
We who "play" with PCs a lot consistently respond with "No way am I giving up my powerful standalone computer for some skinny client, web-based OS or tablet." Personally, I like the feel of a real keyboard, the advantage of a large display, the capability to securely store multi-terrabytes of information in my own home, totally isolated from the outside world, unless they break into my house and take it.
The worrisome thing for me...big technology companies are listening to the pundits and the media - not to us.
Hardware and software vendors seem to be aligning with the predictions. Not good for those who want to keep using desktop systems. Rumors abound that the next generation after Windows 8 might be Microsoft's last full fledged client operating system, with future desktops being "in the cloud." Microsoft hasn't declared this as their plan, but that's what the tech-media is saying.
One scary piece of the puzzle, HP, the top-selling PC vendor, announced that they are getting out of the PC business. Maybe Dell and the smaller companies just fill the gap, but initially, there will less available, so prices could go up, which again might push people toward cheap, bare-bones, cloud-based systems.
My personal hope is that some new vendor steps up with well made PCs at a low price for the diehards...like me. Samsung springs to mind, as they tend to dive into any market and rise to the top.
I also agree with Deb that there would be a second PC revolution, when the world realizes the limitations of the cloud...what if ISPs cap bandwidth and charge by the Megabyte? People won't be able to afford to run their OS and apps from the cloud if they're paying for every Meg that moves from Internet to device and back. Also, what if your ISP goes down, or your modem dies, or any of that. You wouldn't even be able to run Word or look at any of your stored files or pictures or anything. That would suck, in my opinion. Even with my stand-alone systems, I have portable hard drives that only get connected to a PC to transfer something from one to the other. That makes them pretty secure.
You might say, "you can just build your own PC like we used to back in the early days", but if fewer people are buying, the price for those commodities will go crazy, as well. For me, a transition to cloud computing would make it easier for THEM, but fraught with pitfalls for us.
Sorry for the techno-rant...just didn't want to give anyone the wrong impression. I LOVE techno-toys, but, for me, they are just scaled-down, mobile tools. I will always want powerful stand-alone machines that are somewhat independent of (and not at the mercy of) the internet and ISPs.
Joe
I didn't realize you were writing again. Regarding this, I agree completely. Laptops are OK, but not like a desktop, and as for tablets, notebooks and cellphones -- practically speaking they're impossible to use for writing --- and I don't think that's just because I'm almost older than dirt.
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